####018004336####
FNUS21 KWNS 091619

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1118 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026



Valid 091700Z - 101200Z



...Morning Update...

No changes were made to the previous forecast. Poor overnight

humidity recoveries over the northeastern NM plains and current RH

hovering around 20 percent are expected to maintain Elevated fire

weather conditions this afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to

15 mph across the area. Forecast soundings portray a dry sub-cloud

layer beneath increased mid-level moisture, supportive of strong and

erratic wind gusts with any thunderstorms that manage to develop. In

addition to isolated convection, very sparse lightning ignitions

cannot be ruled out. 



In parts of the Northeast, morning surface observations are

reporting widespread RH of 25-35 percent with increasing southerly

sustained winds up to 10 mph. Locally elevated fire weather is

possible this afternoon as winds are forecast to increase to 15 mph

(locally higher within the Hudson/Champlain Valleys). However,

increasing mid and high level clouds may dampen the fire

environment, and given questionable fuel receptivity, elevated

highlights have been withheld. 



See the previous discussion for more information.



..Elizalde-Garcia/Stearns.. 04/09/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026/



...Synopsis...

Largely zonal flow will persist across much of the Rockies today,

with upper-level ridging across much of the Intermountain West and a

closed upper-level low approaching the northern California

coastline. At the surface, a frontal boundary positioned across the

central Great Plains will shift northward as a warm front today

before moving back southward as cold front tonight. A trailing

dryline will also extend southward across the central/southern High

Plains.



...Portions of the southern High Plains...

A weak surface low positioned over southeastern Colorado is forecast

to favor sustained southwesterly winds around 15 mph across portions

of the southern High Plains behind the dryline. While passing

mid/high clouds may temper the overall fire environment to some

extent, minimum relative humidities are forecast in the 15-20% range

during peak mixing. With dry fuels across the region, this should

promote at least a few hours of elevated fire weather concerns for

northeastern New Mexico, the northwestern Texas Panhandle, and the

western Oklahoma Panhandle.



Increased mid-level moisture atop deep, dry boundary layers may also

support the development of isolated, high-based convection across

this region this afternoon. While little precipitation is expected

with any storms that do develop due to PWATs on the order of a half

inch or less and LCLs approaching 4 km AGL, erratic downburst winds

will be possible. With forecast soundings indicating the presence of

50-150 J/kg MLCAPE, a few lightning ignitions cannot be ruled out.

However, given the very isolated nature of storm development and the

potential for wetting rainfall on D2/Friday, dry thunderstorm

probabilities have been withheld. 



...Portions of the Great Basin/Southwest...

Southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph (locally higher in terrain favored

areas) are forecast to coincide with low RH of 15-20% across much of

the southern Great Basin/Southwest. This combination of winds/RH may

promote locally elevated fire weather concerns, but recent cooler

weather, precipitation, and resultant marginal fuels are expected to

preclude widespread fire weather concerns at this time.



...Portions of the Northeast...

Surface high pressure shifting offshore of the Northeast coupled

with low pressure in the vicinity of James Bay will promote a

tightened pressure gradient and sustained 10-15 mph southerly winds

across portions of the Northeast this afternoon (locally higher

within the Hudson/Champlain/Connecticut River Valleys). While

minimum RH values are forecast around 25-35%, questionable fuels

preclude any introduction of Elevated highlights. This combination

of weather conditions may support fire spread within pockets of

drier fine fuels, however.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$