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FNUS21 KWNS 020808

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024



Valid 021200Z - 031200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...



...Synopsis...

An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer

west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS,

with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the

Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone

will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern

Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure

gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern

Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of

warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High

Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical

fire-weather conditions. 



...Central and Southern High Plains...

The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust

downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High

Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10

percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same

time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep

boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an

expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds

(with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could

reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas

farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across

the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather

conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather

conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and

the TX Panhandle.



..Weinman.. 03/02/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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