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FNUS21 KWNS 031535

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0935 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024



Valid 031700Z - 041200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO

SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...



The primary change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was

to expand Elevated highlights northeastward into portions of the

Upper Mississippi Valley. Here, 25 mph sustained southerly winds

(with higher gusts) will overspread dry fuels for several hours this

afternoon and early evening. Though RH may only drop into the 35-45

percent range in spots, the very strong winds and dry fuels (driven

by a lack of recent rainfall and longer term drought) should

compensate to support some potential for rapid wildfire spread.



Otherwise, the rest of the forecast (see below) remains on track.



..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/



...Synopsis...

A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist

across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave

trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the

northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow

aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee

cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these

developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across

much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where

seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread

elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. 



...Southern High Plains...

Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High

Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher

along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern

High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient.

In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft

will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60

mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty

surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the

strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions

given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in

sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing

to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH

should still support near-critical to critical conditions. 



For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will

generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface

temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally

critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph

sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly,

20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher

gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the

eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH

here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are

still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop

increasingly receptive fuels.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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