####018003013####
FNUS28 KWNS 102158

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0456 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021



Valid 121200Z - 181200Z



A split flow pattern will dominate the mid levels through the

forecast period bringing unusually cool temperatures to much of the

center of the country. A large upper low settling across the Great

Basin will mark the western extension of an omega block expected to

form by midweek. The southern stream of the mid-level jet will move

along the Mexican border as several cold fronts shift across the

center of the country. Cooler than normal temperatures and

widespread precipitation chances will relegate significant fire

weather potential to more sheltered areas of the Great Basin and

Southwest through the next several days.



...Great Basin and Southwest...

Westerly flow aloft will begin to increase ahead of the upper low

beginning late Day3/Monday into Day4/Tuesday. The southern stream of

the mid-level jet is forecast to intensify through the day as height

gradients aloft begin to strengthen. A lee low is forecast to

develop across the Great Basin with regional model soundings showing

30-40 kts of sfc-700 mb flow.  Warm temperatures and dry continental

trajectories will support widespread surface RH of 10-20% from

southern Nevada eastward into western New Mexico. Elevated to

critical fire weather conditions appear probable.  



The upper low will begin to stall across the southern Great Basin

early Day5/Wednesday as a second stronger jet streak rounds the base

of the low. The surface cyclone across southern Nevada is expected

to intensify, increasing low-level mass response across the Four

Corners. The increase in low-level flow will be further augmented by

vertical momentum transport from deep mixing and the strengthening

mid-level jet. Widespread southwesterly surface winds of 20-30 mph

and higher gusts appear likely across northern Arizona and

northwestern New Mexico. Surface RH should fall to 7-15% across a

large swath of the Southwest in response to strong heating/mixing

through the afternoon. The combination of strong wind fields, low

RH, and dry fuels should support widespread elevated/critical fire

weather conditions. However, confidence in the northward extent and

placement of the potentially critical corridor remains low due to

model differences in the extent of cloud cover/precip across the

central Rockies ahead of a cold front. 



Through the rest of the extended period, exact forecast details

remain obfuscated with the addition of wintry precipitation chances

across the Rockies confounding the situation. Nonetheless, fuels

remain quite favorable with the ongoing drought across much of the

Southwest, suggesting localized threats for elevated/critical fire

weather conditions will likely persist next week.



..Lyons.. 04/10/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$

####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 102158

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0456 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2021



VALID TIME 121200Z - 181200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



&&