####018001951#### FNUS22 KWNS 241952 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$