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FNUS22 KWNS 031918

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0217 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024



Valid 041200Z - 051200Z



An Elevated risk area has been introduced for parts of southwest to

central New Mexico for Saturday afternoon. The general forecast

evolution outlined in the previous discussion remains on track,

though latest high-res ensemble guidance has shown a reasonably

strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southwest to central NM (the

probability for winds over 15 mph is generally 60%+ for most

locations). These conditions appear most probable during the 20-23

UTC period along ridge tops within the Gila region and along the

I-25 corridor. While the driest fuel conditions appear to be across

south-central NM, fuel analyses suggests ERCs over the region vary

between the 60-90th percentiles. These values are corroborated by

recent small wildfire activity, which suggests that fuels are

adequately dry to support fire weather concerns. Further west across

the southern Great Basin, strengthening winds combined with dry

conditions will support widespread elevated fire weather conditions.

However, fuel guidance suggests ERCs are near to below seasonal

values, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat.



..Moore.. 05/03/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/



...Synopsis...

A shortwave trough in West Texas will lift northeastward to near the

Red River Valley on Saturday. Farther north, a stronger upper-level

trough will also move northeast out of the central/northern Plains.

As this occurs, a cold front will push into part of the southern

High Plains. To the west of the cold front up against the southern

Rockies, parts of the Southwest will again be dry and breezy.

Similar to Friday, these conditions should generally be short-lived

and localized.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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