####018001269####
FNUS21 KWNS 050745

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0144 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024



Valid 051200Z - 061200Z



...Synopsis...

Embedded within a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow, a

low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward across parts of

SD and NE early in the period. At the same time, an attendant weak

surface cyclone will move eastward across SD. Along the southern

periphery of this feature, a modest pressure gradient and

boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 15-20

mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across

parts of northern NE and southern SD. While these winds will peak in

the morning, they will likely overlap diurnally decreasing afternoon

RH values of 15-20 percent for a couple hours. Given receptive fuels

across the area, a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions

is expected.



Farther south, moderate downslope flow off the southern Rockies will

favor 15 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains.

However, surface winds should remain too weak for an appreciable

fire-weather risk.



..Weinman.. 03/05/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$

####018001628####
FNUS22 KWNS 050748

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024



Valid 061200Z - 071200Z



...Synopsis...

A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern

Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks

northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the

surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with

shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will

yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts

upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD,

far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be

limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially

with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests

that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated

wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive

fuels across the region.



Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen

across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low 

moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis

is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained

southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern

High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15

percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical

fire-weather conditions during the afternoon.



..Weinman.. 03/05/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$