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FNUS21 KWNS 121640

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1139 AM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021



Valid 121700Z - 131200Z



The overall forest remains on track with minimal changes. The

elevated area across the Southwest was extended into southern

portions of the San Luis Valley where elevated to locally critical

fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon. The Central

High Plains elevated area has been expanded slightly to the east

with latest guidance.



..Lyons.. 04/12/2021



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021/



...Synopsis...

Zonal flow aloft will dominate much of the western and central U.S.

as an upper trough slowly moves across the northern Plains, while a

second trough aloft gradually deepens across the Interior West. Flow

aloft will be relatively modest across portions of the southwest

U.S. Nonetheless, a dry boundary layer will encourage downward

momentum transport and dry downslope flow across terrain favoring

areas to support modest wildfire-spread potential. Modestly dry and

breezy conditions may also accompany a post-cold-frontal environment

across portions of the Central Plains.



...Portions of the Southwest U.S...

Widespread 10-20% RH is likely by afternoon peak heating across much

of the Lower Colorado River Basin into central New Mexico. The

aforementioned downward mixing is expected to contribute to 15 mph

sustained westerly winds, with Elevated highlights delineating where

the most favorable surface winds/RH overlap are expected to occur.

The lower terrain will be most favorable for wildfire spread as

fuels are more receptive in these areas. 



...Central Nebraska...

A surface low departing the Upper Mississippi Valley and persistent

high pressure across the northern Rockies will fortify a dry

northwesterly flow regime across portions of the Central Plains. 20+

mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are expected across

portions of central Nebraska, when minimum RH is expected to dip

into the 20-25% range. Modestly receptive fine fuels are in place,

warranting the introduction of an Elevated highlight given the

aforementioned surface conditions.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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