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FNUS22 KWNS 051938

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0138 PM CST Tue Mar 05 2024



Valid 061200Z - 071200Z



The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions

made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details.



..Squitieri.. 03/05/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024/



...Synopsis...

A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern

Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks

northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the

surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with

shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will

yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts

upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD,

far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be

limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially

with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests

that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated

wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive

fuels across the region.



Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen

across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low 

moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis

is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained

southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern

High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15

percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical

fire-weather conditions during the afternoon.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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