####018001482####
FNUS21 KWNS 060751

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024



Valid 061200Z - 071200Z



...Synopsis...

A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward

across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and

trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early

in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface

pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50

kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface

winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD,

western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent

minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather

risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive

fuels.



Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the

southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low

moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off

the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO,

will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with

higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern

High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather

conditions are expected.



..Weinman.. 03/06/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$

####018001554####
FNUS22 KWNS 060752

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024



Valid 071200Z - 081200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND

WEST TEXAS...



...Synopsis...

Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western

CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the

southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface

cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a

southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX.



...Southern High Plains...

West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute

to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL

across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing

mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will

support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and

temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a

tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee

cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary

layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface

winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the

southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather

conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX.



..Weinman.. 03/06/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$