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FNUS22 KWNS 261919

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0118 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025



Valid 271200Z - 281200Z



No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous

discussion below.



..Thornton.. 01/26/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025/



...Synopsis...

Portions of eastern Arizona and far west/southwestern New Mexico

will continue to see elevated fire weather concerns through Monday

afternoon. The upper low currently deepening off the central CA

coast is forecast to reach peak intensity over the next 24 hours

over southern CA before gradually shifting east into the lower CO

River Valley by late Monday. This eastward shift will be influenced

by the ejection of a mid-level jet max on the southeastern fringe of

the upper low into northwest Mexico, which will promote surface

pressure falls across AZ/NM under the left-exit region. In response,

southerly low-level winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph,

which when coupled with an antecedent dry air mass (forecast RH

minimums between 10-20%), should promote elevated fire weather

conditions. Surface winds are expected to be strongest in proximity

to the surface trough, which most solutions agree will likely reside

along, if not just east of, the AZ/NM border. Localized critical

conditions appear possible within the higher terrain of the Gila

region in southwest NM, but the potential for widespread/sustained

critical conditions appears limited. Fuels across this area continue

to cure after several days of anomalously low dewpoints with ERCs

approaching the 90th percentile in some areas, and should support

the fire weather concern.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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