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FNUS21 KWNS 061621

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1020 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024



Valid 061700Z - 071200Z



The previous forecast remains largely on track. The only appreciable

change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook was to expand Elevated

highlights eastward into central Minnesota and northern Iowa. Here,

the latest guidance consensus shows 25-30 percent RH coinciding with

15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds for at least a few hours

this afternoon.



..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/



...Synopsis...

A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward

across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and

trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early

in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface

pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50

kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface

winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD,

western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent

minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather

risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive

fuels.



Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the

southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low

moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off

the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO,

will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with

higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern

High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather

conditions are expected.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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