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FNUS21 KWNS 071605

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1004 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024



Valid 071700Z - 081200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH

PLAINS...



The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight

modifications made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to reflect

the latest guidance consensus.



..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/



...Synopsis...

Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough over the West,

strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern

Rockies and adjacent Plains through the period. In response, a lee

surface cyclone will deepen over the TX Panhandle, while a dryline

extends southward across parts of west/central TX.



...Southern High Plains...

West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal

heating will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer --

extending up to around 4 km AGL. This will support lower 70s surface

temperatures and 12-15 percent minimum RH over much of the southern

High Plains. Here, a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the

lee cyclone, coupled with strong flow through the depth of the

boundary layer, will yield 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly

surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). The best overlap of

the strong/gusty winds and low RH is expected over parts of eastern

NM into West TX, where critical fire-weather conditions are

expected, given receptive fuels across the area.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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