####018002191####
FNUS21 KWNS 140716

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0215 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021



Valid 141200Z - 151200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST

NEW MEXICO...



...Synopsis...

Mid-level troughs and associated surface lows/lee troughs are

expected to propagate across the Interior West and to the lee of the

Appalachians along the East Coast today, promoting favorable

wildfire-spread conditions across portions of the Lower Colorado

River Valley and Central Savannah River area. Across the Southwest

U.S., wildfire-spread concerns are greatest in the low-terrain

areas, where fuels are most receptive to fire spread.



...Lower Colorado River Valley...

A belt of 60+ kt mid-level flow is expected to overspread the Four

Corners region by afternoon peak heating, when boundary-layer mixing

is projected to be strongest. The optimal timing of the

overspreading mid-level winds and associated downward momentum

transport within the dry boundary layer suggests that widespread 20+

mph sustained southwesterly surface winds are likely across much of

the Southwest in tandem with 10-20% RH. Critical highlights have

been introduced where 25+ mph sustained winds and 10-15% RH are

likely to overlap for at least a few hours, with at least locally

Critical conditions possible through the remainder of the Elevated

area. Brief, localized Extremely Critical meteorological conditions

are also possible close to the Kaibab Plateau towards the Black Mesa

and Chuska Mountains. 

 

...Portions of the Southeast...

Afternoon boundary-layer mixing across portions of eastern Georgia

into South Carolina is expected to foster 25-35% surface RH values,

while a passing surface lee trough will encourage 10-15 mph

sustained southwesterly winds (perhaps with higher gusts). Since the

favorable overlapping surface winds/RH are expected to overspread

dry fuels across the region, Elevated fire weather highlights have

been maintained across the region.



..Squitieri.. 04/14/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$

####018001431####
FNUS22 KWNS 140717

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0216 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021



Valid 151200Z - 161200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA INTO

CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...



...Synopsis...

A mid-level trough will begin to move offshore into the Atlantic as

a second trough aloft ejects into the Plains states tomorrow. Cooler

air will surge southeastward across the eastern U.S. as surface high

pressure ushers in, while dry and breezy conditions take shape

across the Southwest due to downslope flow and surface lee-troughing

present across the southern High Plains.



...Portions of the Lower Colorado River Valley...

60+ kt mid-level flow will overspread Arizona and New Mexico as the

mid-level trough ejects into the Plains states. A deep, dry boundary

layer will induce downward mixing/momentum transport to encourage

widespread 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds. These stronger

winds will overlap with 10-20% RH for several hours during the

afternoon, warranting the introduction of Critical highlights. A

broader region of Elevated surface conditions will also be present

across the Southwest, however, at least locally Critical conditions

will also be possible throughout the Elevated area.



..Squitieri.. 04/14/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$