####018001767#### FNUS22 KWNS 291956 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited across the country on Thursday, though some concerns may emerge across the Big Bend region of southern Texas depending on fuel trends over the next 48 hours. The upper low currently over the Southwest is expected to eject into the southern Plains through late Thursday. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to become more pronounced Thursday afternoon across the central Plains, resulting in strengthening pressure gradient winds across much of TX. Westerly winds between 15-25 mph will be common, and dry air advection, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote RH reductions down to 15-20% across the greater Big Bend region. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high probabilities for sustained elevated fire weather conditions across this region with low to moderate probabilities (30-50%) for critical conditions. While confidence in reasonably high for at least elevated fire weather conditions, fuels across this region are not overly receptive with ERCs generally below the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture values above the 50th percentile. Fire weather highlights may be needed in future forecast updated if fine fuels can sufficiently dry by Thursday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$