####018002273####
FNUS28 KWNS 162117

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0415 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021



Valid 181200Z - 241200Z



Upper-level flow across most of the CONUS will be broadly cyclonic

in the mean sense. Within that flow, several shortwave troughs will

be present. Across the Great Basin/Southwest, an upper-level trough

will nearly cut off before phasing with a larger trough moving

through the northern/central Plains early next week. Thereafter,

stronger cyclonic flow will exist across the central/eastern

portions of the U.S. with another shortwave trough expected to dig

into the Southwest by mid/late next week. At the surface, a

weakening surface high in the Rockies/Plains will give way to

another front and cold airmass in the Plains and eventually the

Southeast.



...Southern California...

Atmospheric conditions that would normally favor a more robust fire

weather threat will be present on Sunday. The upper-level trough in

the southern Great Basin will become closed and somewhat removed

from the main jet stream. This will allow enhanced northeasterly

winds to flow along the typical offshore gradients through the day.

This, in combination with coastal trough and Great Basin surface

high, will promote dry/windy conditions across Southern California.

Lack of rainfall has kept dead fuel moisture low. However, higher

live fuel moisture and greenup will keep the fire weather threat

localized to areas of dry fuel beds.



...Southwest/Southern High Plains...

An increase in critical fire weather risk is likely to accompany the

next shortwave trough moving into the Great Basin/Southwest mid/late

next week. The timing of this feature remains uncertain. With

available guidance, the highest confidence in critical fire weather

is within the Southwest on Wednesday. However, the exact position of

the trough and especially the pertinent surface features is too

uncertain to introduce highlights. As this trough moves east, lee

troughing is likely and will shift fire weather risk more into New

Mexico and the southern High Plains on Thursday.



..Wendt.. 04/16/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 162117

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0415 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2021



VALID TIME 181200Z - 241200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



&&