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FNUS22 KWNS 100753

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024



Valid 111200Z - 121200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS

OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN

KANSAS...



...Synopsis...

A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with

westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee

troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are

expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas

and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions,

afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap

with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up

of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing

temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month

across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and

meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were

maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. 



Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across 

east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas.

Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical

conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such,

D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation.

Trends will continue to be monitored. 



Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of

southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on

afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance

lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions.

As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation

with this outlook.



..Thornton.. 03/10/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$