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FNUS22 KWNS 101937

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0236 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024



Valid 111200Z - 121200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST

SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE

TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS...



Made significant expansion to the Elevated area to include most of

Kansas, western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, southern South Dakota and

eastern Wyoming. Within this Elevated area a Critical delineation

has been added for eastern Wyoming and the Critical area in the High

Plains has been expanded into north-central Kansas. 



The forecast remains on track for portions of the southern High

Plains. However, 12Z forecast guidance shows dry and windy

conditions extending across much of the central Plains. Critical

conditions are likely in central Kansas where only minimal

precipitation has fallen in the past week. Farther east relative

humidity will not be as low given recent rainfall, but sustained

winds near or above critical strength are still expected. Therefore,

despite the recent rainfall, have expanded the Elevated to these

areas to cover the threat for large fires, especially where grasses

remain dormant/freeze-cured. 



Snowcover remains across northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska,

but outside of these areas there will be some large fire threat

given the meteorological conditions. Have drawn the Elevated

delineation to include areas which are free of snowcover as of this

afternoon, where fine fuels have had some time to dry by tomorrow

afternoon. 



Finally, added a critical area for east-central Wyoming. Downslope

flow and a deeply mixed airmass will support sustained surface winds

of 20 to 25 mph across eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle

and far southwest South Dakota. This region has seen well below

normal precipitation in the past month with minimal precipitation in

the past 2 weeks. Therefore, fine fuels will be sufficiently dry to

carry fire.



..Bentley.. 03/10/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/



...Synopsis...

A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday with

westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee

troughing across the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions are

expected across northeastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas

and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. In these regions,

afternoon relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap

with sustained southwest winds at 15-20 mph. Early spring green up

of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing

temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month

across these regions. Given confidence in status of fuels and

meteorological conditions, the 70 percent D3 probabilities were

maintained with a D2 Critical delineation. 



Similar fuel conditions extend into the Elevated risk areas across 

east-central/south-central New Mexico and southwestern Texas.

Ensemble probabilities are less supportive of sustained Critical

conditions with more marginal winds across these regions. As such,

D3 40 percent probabilities were kept as an Elevated delineation.

Trends will continue to be monitored. 



Elevated fire weather conditions will extend into portions of

southwestern and south-central Kansas. Guidance has more spread on

afternoon relative humidity in these regions with ensemble guidance

lending higher probabilities to Elevated over Critical conditions.

As such, this area was also maintained in an Elevated delineation

with this outlook.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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