####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 091953

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0251 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2024



VALID TIME 111200Z - 171200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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####018001838####
FNUS28 KWNS 091953

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0251 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024



Valid 111200Z - 171200Z



Fire weather concerns appear limited through the extended period,

though localized concerns may emerge across portions of the

Southwest amid persistent warm/dry conditions. Long-range ensemble

guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the

overall synoptic regime through the beginning of the upcoming work

week. Mean longwave troughing should persist across the central to

western CONUS with embedded perturbations propagating across the

Southwest into the Plains. This will support intermittent rain

chances along and east of the Rockies through early next week, which

should limit fuel dryness. Ensemble consensus suggests that portions

of southern AZ/southwest NM will see low probability for wetting

rainfall through the extended period, which should aid in curing

already modestly dry fuels. Multiple days of elevated fire weather

conditions appear probable through the upcoming weekend and into

early next week based on both deterministic and ensemble solutions.

Fire concerns appear most likely on D3/Saturday and D4/Sunday across

southwest NM and far southeast AZ, but the probability of reaching

critical wind thresholds appears too limited to warrant risk

probabilities at this time. The potential for elevated conditions

will continue into the middle portions of next week over the

Southwest/Four Corners region, but the weak/low-amplitude nature of

the upper-level waves combined with notable spread in guidance

pertaining to mesoscale details suggests low predictability beyond

this weekend.



..Moore.. 05/09/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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