####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 172139

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0437 PM CDT SAT APR 17 2021



VALID TIME 191200Z - 251200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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####018003398####
FNUS28 KWNS 172139

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0437 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021



Valid 191200Z - 251200Z



Troughs within the northern and southern streams will phase around

midweek. A broad, but potent, trough will develop across the eastern

third of the CONUS. This will remain across the region until late in

the week. To the west, a shortwave trough will eventually develop

along the West Coast and dig into the Southwest by mid/late week.

The upper-level pattern becomes quite divergent in models towards

next weekend. At the surface, a strong cold front will progress

through the Plains into the Gulf by Wednesday. High pressure will

remain across the Plains/East with low pressure systems accompanying

the stronger shortwave troughs within the West and Southwest.



...Great Basin...

A potent shortwave trough will impact parts of the Great Basin on

Monday. A low pressure system will deepen along the cold front to

the northeast of the region. Strong winds and low RH are possible

south of the front in Nevada and Utah. At present, the greatest

confidence in critical fire weather is in parts of the lower

elevations of central/southern Utah. Winds will be strong in

northern/central Nevada, but there is greater uncertainty with

regard to RH.



...Southwest...Southern High Plains...

Model solutions still vary somewhat in the position of the front,

but the overall pattern will support strong winds aloft across the

Southwest and southern Plains. Deepening low pressure in the

southern Great Basin on Wednesday and in the High Plains on Thursday

will support critical fire weather potential. The potential for

critical fire weather may extend into Friday within the Trans-Pecos

and Big Bend. The area of risk will depend on the position of the

cold front to the north and the dryline to the east. No areas will

be added for Friday given this remaining uncertainty.



...Northern Plains...

As the surface high moves off to the southeast through the week, the

cold airmass in the Plains will likely modify. A northern stream

upper-level trough will deepen a cyclone in the lee of the Canadian

Rockies towards Wednesday/Thursday. This will bring another frontal

system near and through the area by late week. Ahead of the front,

dry and windy conditions will be possible from Montana into North

Dakota on Wednesday. On Thursday the risk will shift into

central/eastern North Dakota with some potential in the

Upper-Midwest. Wind fields still appear modest in guidance and no

areas will be added.



...Georgia into the Carolinas...

A cold front will approach the region around midweek as a broad,

strong trough develops across the eastern third of the CONUS. Dry

fuels remain across these areas. With dry and windy conditions

possible ahead and behind the front, some increase in fire weather

concerns are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. A weak frontal wave

may develop along the residual cold front off the coast which could

bring some precipitation in some areas. Further precipitation is

possible along the front. Those concerns keep confidence low, but

the precipitation signal remains weak and trends will be monitored.



..Wendt.. 04/17/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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