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FNUS21 KWNS 041633

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1032 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026



Valid 041700Z - 051200Z



Elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns are expected to

continue across the Front Range in Colorado through the afternoon.

Morning surface observations have shown gusts 40-50 mph and relative

humidity 15-25 percent across the foothills and into the Denver

Metro extending southward to Pueblo. Winds will likely begin to

decrease through the afternoon, but a few more hours of sustained

winds 15-20 mph gusting 30-40 mph are expected. The previous

forecast remains on track with no changes needed. See previous

discussion below for more information.



..Thornton.. 01/04/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026/



...Synopsis...

A broad mid-level ridge will be located across the central United

States on Sunday. To the west of this ridge axis, westerly winds

will develop across the Front Range early in the forecast period

before slowly backing late to west-southwest in the period. This

westerly flow will contribute to warm, dry conditions across much of

eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and the surroundings Plains

of Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. 



Forecast minimum relative humidity percentages across this region

will support fire weather conditions, meaning that it will fall

below the 20-25% range. The biggest question about fire weather

concerns will be the strength of the low-level flow. High-resolution

guidance this evening confines the strongest winds (those in excess

of 15 mph) to the higher terrain of central Colorado and the lower

relative humidity farther east across the Plains. 



Given the tendency for guidance to underdo the strength of downslope

winds, have opted to maintain the elevated from central Colorado

into northeast New Mexico and the adjacent Plains of the Oklahoma

and Texas Panhandles for elevated to locally critical fire weather

conditions.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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