####018002366#### FNUS21 KWNS 011636 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally elevated conditions remain possible across the southern High Plains. The strongest winds/gusts should shift eastward into more of Oklahoma with time as the low-level jet shifts eastward. Fuels and RH become more marginal with eastward extent, however. ..Wendt.. 02/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Increasing zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast today. A lee low will strengthen surface winds over parts of the Plains where warm temperatures and low humidity are expected. This could allow for some fire-weather risk over the southern High Plains and NM, though fuels remain a complicating factor. ...Southern Plains and east-central NM... As mostly zonal flow aloft pass over the central Rockies, a lee low is expected to bolster south/southwesterly flow (15-25 mph) over parts of the southern High Plains. Diurnal heating, intermixed with some mid and high-level cloud cover, should favor above normal temperatures. The warm temperatures and westerly surface flow should support gusty winds and RH below 20% across much of the southern Plains. Meteorologically elevated (and localized near critical) conditions are possible across portions of the NM highlands, eastern TX Panhandles and western OK for several hours this afternoon. The primary uncertainty precluding larger and higher categorical areas remains the availability and receptiveness of area fuels. Drying has been noted over the last several days, especially within areas devoid of heavier precipitation (TX Panhandle and western OK). ERCs are expected to gradually increase above normal, but confidence in widespread critical fuels is currently low. Still, the expected drying of fuels could support a risk of increased initial attack within short-hour fuels. Thus, an Elevated area has been added where the best overlap of receptive fuels and sustained meteorological conditions are expected across TX/OK and NM. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$