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FNUS38 KWNS 122100

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0258 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2021



VALID TIME 141200Z - 201200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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FNUS28 KWNS 122100

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0258 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021



Valid 141200Z - 201200Z



A broad cyclonic upper-level flow regime will continue to dominate

over the CONUS for much of the extended period. Embedded shortwave

troughs will introduce rain/snow chances from the West Coast into

the southern Plains and Midwest for the first half of the period

while an arctic air mass remains entrenched over the Plains. The

combination of this cold air and widespread precipitation chances

will limit the overall fire weather potential. Localized fire

weather concerns are possible for the lower Colorado River Valley

where little precipitation and a gradual drying trend is expected. 



...D3/Sunday and D5/Tuesday to D6/Wednesday - Lower CO River

Valley...

Little rain/snowfall is expected across southeast CA, southern NV,

and far western AZ over the extended period. Meanwhile, the passage

of mid-level shortwave troughs on D3/Sunday as well as over D5/Tues

into D6/Wed will induce surface pressure falls over the Four

Corners, subsequently increasing pressure-gradient winds over the

region. A transition to a northerly surface flow regime will help

usher in drier air with most ensemble guidance showing a drying

trend through next week. The dry weather and breezy winds may allow

for some fire weather concerns for the lower CO River Valley,

however, fuels are a limiting factor. Recent analyses show ERC

values are near or just below seasonal normals, and recent light

rainfall has likely further reduced fuel receptiveness. A fire

weather concern may present itself in the coming days if fuels can

dry and become sufficiently receptive.



..Moore.. 02/12/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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