####018001699####
FNUS28 KWNS 012132

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0330 PM CST Sat Feb 01 2025



Valid 031200Z - 091200Z



An elongated upper-level ridge will begin to amplify early next week

as a trough moves into the West. Model trends over the past 24 hours

have generally decreased the amplitude of the western trough. This

is most notable in the GFS. This impacts the southern extent of the

stronger mid-level flow and, consequently, the strength of the lee

trough anticipated towards next Wednesday. Of further note, the

shortwave trough feature in the southern High Plains on Wednesday

has sped up in the latest model guidance and is slightly less

optimally timed during the afternoon as a result. At the surface, an

initial cold air surge on Monday/Tuesday in the Plains will likely

stall somewhere in Oklahoma and will not make much westward progress

into the southern Rockies. Another cold air surge will push farther

south and west on Thursday.



...Southern High Plains...

A few days of at least modestly dry and breezy conditions are

expected this weekend into early next week. Fuels will continue to

dry further given the lack of precipitation recently. Given the

model trends of late, confidence in critical fire weather remains

low to moderate. Based on the ECMWF as well as ensemble guidance,

40% critical probabilities will be maintained as the pattern will

still support elevated to locally critical fire weather. Of course,

model trends will continue to be monitored over the next few days.



..Wendt.. 02/01/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 012132

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0330 PM CST SAT FEB 01 2025



VALID TIME 031200Z - 091200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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