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FNUS38 KWNS 062019

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0217 PM CST WED MAR 06 2024



VALID TIME 081200Z - 141200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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FNUS28 KWNS 062019

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0217 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024



Valid 081200Z - 141200Z



A mid-level trough will traverse the southern U.S. as a surface cold

front sweeps across the southern Plains Day 3/Friday. Critically dry

and windy conditions will likely coincide with the International

border late Friday afternoon. It is unclear how much of this area

may experience appreciable precipitation accumulations in the

Thursday-Friday time frame, precluding the addition of 70 percent

Critical probabilities at this time.



Thereafter, another mid-level trough will approach the central CONUS

and promote strong surface lee troughing across the Plains states

early to mid next week. Downslope flow may support critically dry

and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains through

at least Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday, where 40 percent Critical

probabilities have been introduced. There is also the possibility

that these conditions may persist into Day 8/Wednesday. However,

details on the exact timing and evolution of next week's mid-level

trough remain uncertain, precluding higher Day 6-7 Critical

probabilities and any Day 8 probabilities this outlook. The latest

medium range guidance is also hinting at the possibility for

Critically dry/windy conditions across portions of the central into

northern Plains early to mid next week. However, these conditions

may be preceded by appreciable rainfall accumulations, so Critical

probabilities have been withheld until the impacts of any potential

future rainfall become clearer.



..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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