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FNUS21 KWNS 141627

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1026 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026



Valid 141700Z - 151200Z



...South-Central Texas...

Current radar and satellite imagery shows a convective line

extending across the Edwards Plateau, although increasingly limited

upstream development is noted closer to the TX/Mexico border. Short

term model guidance indicates heavier rainfall remaining to the

northeast of the Rio Grande Valley in South-Central TX as the cold

front sweeps southeastward through tonight, allowing at least some

pockets of receptive fuels to persist. Drier, post-frontal flow is

still expected across South-Central TX this afternoon. RH falling to

as low as 20% will coincide with northwest winds of 15-20 mph to

promote elevated fire weather conditions near the Rio Grande in

South-Central TX.



..Williams.. 02/14/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026/



...Synopsis...

A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the southern Plains

through the day today, advancing a dryline eastward across portions

of central and southern Texas. To the west of the dryline near the

Rio Grande Valley, winds are expected to be in the 15-20 mph range

with rapidly falling RH. RH may drop to 20-25%, though there is some

uncertainty with how low the RH will be, which may limit the overall

fire weather risk. However, given dry antecedent conditions and dry

fuels with any wetting rains staying largely to the north and east,

elected to continue the Elevated highlights for this region.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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