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FNUS21 KWNS 130551

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024



Valid 131200Z - 141200Z



...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO

WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...



...Synopsis...

...Wildfire Outbreak Possible...



A belt of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will overspread the Rocky

Mountains and the southern/central Plains today. Lee cyclogenesis

will occur across the central High Plains, with a surface dryline

extending from central Kansas southward into western/central Texas.

Extremely Critical fire weather is expected across the Texas

Panhandle into western Oklahoma. A broader area of Elevated to

Critical fire weather will encompass much of the southern High

Plains.



...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma Extremely Critical...

An Extremely Critical fire area was maintained with this outlook

across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. Within this

region, the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed

atmosphere Wednesday afternoon. As a result, sustained winds of 30

mph are expected (gusting of 50+ mph) with relative humidity

dropping in the single digits. 



Extensive fuel loading is present in the region and will support

large fire spread. In addition, the latest fuel guidance indicates

fuels have dried even further since the wildfire outbreak at the end

of February with daily ERC values likely above the 95th percentile

for the date by tomorrow afternoon.



...Southern High Plains Critical...

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the

southern High Plains, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15

percent will overlap sustained winds 20-25 (locally as high as 30

mph). Fuels within this region are critically dry (with ERCs around

the 60-75th percentile) and will support increase in wildfire

spread. Fuel loading is not as extensive in these regions. As such,

a Critical was maintained with this outlook as confidence in

widespread Extremely Critical conditions is low.



..Thornton.. 03/13/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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