####018000667#### FNUS38 KWNS 202148 PFWF38 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0446 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026 VALID TIME 221200Z - 281200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8 ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ... D3 38090520 38770494 39820497 40070488 40230462 40490387 40450294 39970237 39260230 38500194 37790146 36870137 35950206 35260330 35170401 35320473 35770508 36790529 37340528 37590520 38090520 D4 34350561 34960578 35760540 35910457 35680364 35840265 36180169 36380093 36150037 35740019 35110031 34530061 34070168 33770411 33840528 34350561 && ####018003348#### FNUS28 KWNS 202148 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A large scale upper trough will traverse the Great Basin on Day 3/Wednesday and persist over the northwest and central CONUS through the early weekend. Upper ridging will continue over the eastern U.S. through Day 4/Thursday before transitioning to fairly zonal flow over the Southeast through the weekend. Precipitation will be possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Appalachians with an associated shortwave trough on Day 3/Wednesday. However, much of the Piedmont into the Southeast will remain fairly dry this week as surface high pressure builds across the region through Day 5/Friday. On Day 6/Saturday, a low-amplitude trough is forecast to enter the southwestern U.S and traverse the High Plains early next week. This pattern change could bring relief to portions of the central/southern Plains and broader southeast as precipitation chances increase. However, in areas that remain dry, fire weather concerns are likely to linger given the overall pattern. ...Day 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday... On Day 3/Wednesday, a shortwave impulse will bring precipitation chances across portions of the Mid-Atlantic along a weak cold front. Ahead of the front, strong mid-level flow aloft will support dry and breezy downslope conditions where 97th-99th percentile ERCs have been observed across the Carolinas. 40% Critical probabilities were maintained where westerly winds of up to 15 mph and 20-30 percent RH are forecast to overlap dry fuels. A deepening surface low across the northern High Plains ahead of the approaching upper-level trough and associated southwest flow aloft will bring an expansive fire weather threat to much of the High Plains and portions of the Southwest on Day 3/Wednesday. 70% critical probabilities have been expanded where a mid-level jet should align with tightening surface pressure gradients, promoting strong southwesterly winds of up to 30 mph and RH of 10 percent or less. Downslope enhanced drying and strong westerly winds will continue across much of the Southwest and Southern Plains on Day 4/Thursday as the mid-level trough ejects into the Plains. Broad 40% Critical probabilities were maintained for the Southwest and Southern Plains, and 70% Critical probabilities were introduced on Day 4/Thursday for eastern NM into the TX Panhandle where a corridor of strong downslope winds and critically low RH will overlap dry fuels. ...Day 5-7/Friday-Sunday... As upper troughing persists across the northern U.S., strong zonal flow over the Southwest should promote very breezy and continued dry conditions on Day 5/Friday. 40% Critical probabilities were introduced where ensemble guidance portrays an overlap of low RH and strong winds. An incoming secondary trough may continue fire weather concerns across the Southwest and south/central Plains this weekend where fuels remain dry. However, model ambiguity in timing and location of the trough precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time. ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$