####018000271#### FNUS38 KWNS 032122 PFWF38 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 PM CST MON FEB 03 2025 VALID TIME 051200Z - 111200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8 ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ... && ####018001663#### FNUS28 KWNS 032122 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z Fire weather concerns will most likely be confined to the southern High Plains through the end of the work week as dry conditions persist. Long-range ensemble guidance maintains an anomalously strong, but low-amplitude, upper ridge over the south-central CONUS through the middle of the work week. This will maintain dry conditions for eastern NM and western TX, which currently have 30-day rainfall deficits of around 25% of normal. Some weakening of the ridge is anticipated over the second half of the week, resulting in strengthening zonal flow over the central/southern Rockies. Lee troughing is expected to be most pronounced on D3/Wed and D5/Fri due to the influence of two passing low-amplitude upper disturbances. The resulting low-level mass response will likely induce winds upwards of 15-25 mph across parts of eastern NM and western TX with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% due to a combination of dry air advection from the Desert Southwest and downslope warming/drying. Ensemble guidance suggests a stronger surface low is likely on D3/Wed, which should support a more robust/widespread fire weather threat. Regardless, the curing of fine grasses across the region after a prolonged dry period (coupled with above-average temperatures for the past few days) should support a fire weather concern as winds increase later this week. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$