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FNUS21 KWNS 211552

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1051 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026



Valid 211700Z - 221200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND

THE WEST FLORIDA COAST...



...Morning Update...

The previous forecast remains on track. Despite good overnight

humidity recoveries across both risk areas, RH values are dropping

quickly as surface heating ensues and the dry airmass persists

aloft. A weak upper level disturbance currently shifting east of

central TX will bring increasing cloud cover later this afternoon to

parts of the Mid-Mississippi valley. However, deeper mixing is

expected to occur prior to the cloud shield arrival and subsequent

moisture surge this evening, allowing for dry and breezy conditions

supportive of Elevated fire weather highlights. Farther south, wind

gusts of up to 25 mph are already being observed across portions of

central/western FL. As RH values decrease to less than 35 percent

and combine with easterly sustained winds of up to 15 mph atop

receptive fuels, a Critical fire weather threat will emerge this

afternoon.



..Elizalde-Garcia.. 04/21/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026/



...Synopsis...

Broad northwest flow aloft will encompass much of Northeast and Mid

Atlantic in the wake of a departing upper-trough. A dry airmass will

remain in place across the eastern U.S., Southeast and Deep South as

surface high pressure shifts into the Atlantic. Farther west, a

negatively-tilted upper trough will surge into the Western U.S.,

with dry and breezy conditions focused over the Great Basin ahead of

an advancing cold front.



...Florida into Southern Georgia...

East to northeast winds of 10-15 mph on the southern fringe of the

surface high are expected today across portions of southern GA into

FL. Stronger sustained east winds of 15 mph (with higher gusts) will

be located farther south across the FL Peninsula, while drier

conditions including relative humidity as low as 15% amid higher

temperatures in the lower 80s will be displaced to the north over

the FL Panhandle and southern GA. Critical fire weather conditions

are expected across portions of central FL and the West FL Coast

where sustained winds are likely to reach 15 mph and RH falls into

the 25-35% range. Elevated fire weather concerns were extended into

much of the FL Panhandle where offshore trajectories will maintain a

dry boundary layer through much of the afternoon. Fuels remain very

receptive amid worsening drought conditions with ongoing fire

activity.



...Lower Mississippi Valley...

A relative minimum in recent rainfall and existing dry fuels 

coupled with dry return flow on the western periphery of the broad

surface high pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic, will bring a fire

weather threat to portions of western TN/MS and eastern AR. South to

southwest winds of 10-15 mph amid relative humidity of 20-25%

supports a continuation of Elevated fire weather highlights across

portions of the lower MS River Valley.



...East-Central Wyoming...

A limited fire weather threat will emerge across east-central WY

with a weak downslope warming and drying regime in place across the

central High Plains. A shallow near-surface temperature inversion

will quickly mix out under mostly sunny skies through the late

morning hours, following possible poor RH recoveries overnight in

eastern WY/CO. RH of 10% or below is likely by the afternoon across

the central High Plains. However, weak boundary layer flow and lack

of substantial surface lee troughing across the region should limit

spatial extent and duration of sustained west winds of up to 15 mph

across east-central WY, precluding introduction of Elevated

Highlights.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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