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FNUS38 KWNS 072122

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0320 PM CST WED JAN 07 2026



VALID TIME 091200Z - 151200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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FNUS28 KWNS 072122

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0320 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026



Valid 091200Z - 151200Z



A longwave trough will begin to progress out of the western US on

D2/Thursday, with a surface low developing across the Oklahoma/Texas

Panhandles into western Kansas. Widespread rain/thunderstorm

activity can be expected across some portions of the central/eastern

Southern Plains into the Mississippi/Missouri River Valley. Less

precipitation is likely across portions of western Texas, where fire

concerns are possible D3/Friday.



...D3/Friday - Southwestern/West-Central Texas...

Model guidance has been consistent in forecasting a steep gradient

in precipitation amounts across the Southern Plains but has wavered

on overall amounts and exactly where this will be. Confidence is

moderate that portions of western Texas into western Oklahoma will

receive little to no precipitation. Latest fuels guidance suggests

grass loading is high with freeze cured grasses present and ERCs

around the 80th percentile within these regions. Strong and dry post

frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains behind the

departing low on D3/Friday. Relative humidity reductions to 15-20

percent are expected to overlap sustained northwesterly flow around

20 mph across portions of north-central and southwestern Texas. A 40

percent area was maintained with this outlook, given some continued

uncertainty in where the gradient of higher precipitation will be.

Another factor would be the duration of any Critical conditions as

relative humidity increases with colder air coming in behind the

departing cold front. Depending on how much precipitation occurs, a

Critical area may be warranted for the upcoming transition from D3

to D2. 



Beyond D3/Friday, the trough will progress eastward, with heights

rising across the Southern Plains. The front will have ushered

moisture largely offshore, with dry conditions remaining across much

of the Southern Plains. A few localized areas of breezy/dry

conditions will be possible D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday before lighter

winds return.



..Thornton/Elizalde-Garcia.. 01/07/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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