####018003117#### FNUS22 KWNS 041904 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z Elevated fire weather concerns remain likely across the Southwest and southern High Plains tomorrow. The primary forecast amendment for this update was to introduce an Elevated risk area across east-central AZ into western NM. Recent guidance has trended towards drier/windier conditions along and north of the Mogollon Rim and within the Gila region of southwest NM. Sustained winds within, and in the lee of, the higher terrain should peak between 15-25 mph by late afternoon as stronger mid-level winds mix to the surface. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. Increasing winds with falling RH, coupled with antecedent drought conditions, should sufficiently dry finer fuels to support a fire weather concern. Only minor modifications were made to the existing Elevated risk area across the southern High Plains - mainly to account for the potential for strong winds and dry downslope conditions northward across central CO in the lee of the Rockies. Consideration was given for introducing a Critical risk area across east-central/northeast NM where winds should be sustained near 25-30 mph in closer proximity to the deepening surface low. However, spread in guidance regarding the coverage of such winds, and uncertainty regarding fuel status with northward extent, precluded additional highlights for this update. ..Moore.. 02/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced mid-level flow over the Western US is forecast to shift eastward as a shortwave trough spills over the Rockies and into the Plains Wednesday. As the upper trough approaches, a lee low should deepen over eastern CO, supporting stronger west/southwesterly winds over much of the High Plains. Continued dry conditions and the increase in winds favors some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Southern High Plains... As the shortwave trough and stronger mid-level flow cross the central Rockies, a lee low should intensify over eastern CO. Behind the surface low, west/southwesterly downslope flow, aided by fairly strong mid-level flow, is expected across much of the southern High Plains. Gusty surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are possible across parts of eastern NM and western TX. Dry conditions are also expected, with RH reductions falling to near/below 20% likely from dry continental trajectories and warm temperatures. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely for a few hours over parts of eastern NM and West TX where several days of drying have resulted in more receptive fuels. Some localized critical conditions are also possible, mainly over eastern NM, where larger drier and more dense fuels loads could intersect with the stronger gusts and lower RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$