####018002068####
FNUS21 KWNS 151511

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024



Valid 151700Z - 161200Z



An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the

Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning

surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are

forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus

showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph

(gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating

and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should

yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into

far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH

minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in

near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry)

to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions

may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover

overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in

the RH minimum and max wind forecast.



..Moore.. 03/15/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/



...Synopsis...

A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley

today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an

upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low

will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure

gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across

the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in

pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty

given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the

strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther

north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated

conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$