####018002711#### FNUS21 KWNS 051523 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO... A Critical risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern New Mexico where the best fire weather potential is expected to emerge later this afternoon. Morning surface observations show a very dry air mass in place across western to central NM, characterized by dewpoints in the single digits. RH values will rapidly fall into the single digits to teens as this air mass spreads east amid strengthening westerly winds. Ongoing fog/low stratus across eastern NM and far western TX should rapidly mix out by 18 UTC as winds increase and dry air advects into the region. Latest guidance continues to suggest widespread winds between 15-20 mph are likely across eastern NM and much of the southern High Plains with a swath of 20-30 mph winds probable from east-central to northeast NM and adjacent areas of CO, KS, and the OK/TX Panhandles. Although critical wind/RH conditions may manifest across a broad swath of the southern High Plains, recent fuel guidance suggests the best overlap of receptive fuels and critical wind/RH resides across east-central NM where ERCs have increased into the 80-90th percentile in recent days. ..Moore.. 02/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough, embedded within stronger westerly flow, will cross the Rockies and eject over the Plains through the forecast period. In response to the increase in flow aloft, a surface low will move eastward from the Great Basin and intensify in the lee of the Rockies. This will support periods of strong winds and low humidity over parts of the Southwest and High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains and Southwest... As the upper trough crosses the Rockies, low-level westerly winds are expected to increase across central NM and parts of eastern AZ, scouring out a shallow cold air mass from a stalled cold front farther east. Aided by the increasing flow aloft, surface winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts are likely, especially through terrain-favored areas across central NM. Ample heating/mixing should promote RH reductions into the teens to upper single digits. The combination of increasing winds with falling RH over areas of rapidly drying fuels should allow for sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$