####018002288####
FNUS28 KWNS 162125

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0323 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021



Valid 181200Z - 241200Z



Overall, cold air entrenched across the eastern half of the country,

as well as recent rain/snow accumulations, will mitigate most fire

weather concerns outside of portions of the Southwest where little

precipitation has fallen. The active upper-level pattern will

continue well into the extended period as a shortwave trough moves

into the western CONUS over the weekend. This feature will likely

bring windy conditions and precipitation chances to much of the

Southwest and High Plains for Saturday and Sunday.



...D5/Saturday - Southwest...

Surface pressure falls over eastern CO and NM ahead of the

approaching shortwave trough and a low-level cold front will augment

pressure gradient winds across southern AZ/NM and into the southern

High Plains for D5/Saturday. Long range deterministic and ensemble

guidance continue to show reasonable agreement in the potential for

widespread winds between 15-25 mph with RH values falling into the

15-25% range for many locations. While this suggests that elevated

to critical wind/RH combinations are possible, regional fuel status

remains uncertain due to recent rain/snowfall and additional

precipitation chances over the next few days. As such, any fire

weather threat will likely be localized where fuels are sufficiently

dry.



...D6/Sunday - Southern California...

An offshore wind event appears possible for the southern CA coast on

D6/Sunday and possibly into early D7/Monday. Several long-range

ensemble members show this potential as north to northeasterly winds

increase in the wake of the departing upper-level trough and to the

south of a building surface high. Fuels are currently not receptive,

but little precipitation is forecast for this region so fine fuels

may dry enough to support some fire weather concerns. However,

details such as the degree of downslope warming and drying along the

coastal areas, fuel status, and the effect of the anticipated cold

frontal passage remain uncertain.



..Moore.. 02/16/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$

####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 162125

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0323 PM CST TUE FEB 16 2021



VALID TIME 181200Z - 241200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



&&