####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 172139

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0337 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026



VALID TIME 191200Z - 251200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



&&

####018003151####
FNUS28 KWNS 172139

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0337 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026



Valid 191200Z - 251200Z



...Synopsis...

Fire weather concerns will continue across the Southern Plains

through at least Day 5/Saturday. Strong mid-level westerly flow

aloft combined with surface lee trough development will support dry

and breezy conditions across the Southern Plains on Day 3-4/Thursday

and Friday, with fire weather concerns shifting southward into

southern TX on Day 5/Saturday as a cold front sweeps through the

region. Upper-level troughing moves into the eastern U.S. by early

next week, ushering in northwest flow and aiding in bringing a cold

front southward towards the Gulf Coast by Day 6/Sunday. Fire weather

concerns could emerge across portions of the Southeast and FL by Day

7/Monday, but precipitation could limit overall threat.



...Day 3/Thursday...

Dry and breezy conditions are likely to promote continued fire

weather concerns across the Southern Plains. Elevated west winds

south of a surface low in the Central Plains under a strong 80-90 kt

mid-level jet, a dry boundary layer and dry fuels should be

conducive to wildfire spread across portions of northeastern NM, TX

Panhandle and OK on Day 3/Thursday. Dry and breezy westerly flow

aided by favorable downslope conditions are anticipated farther

south across far west TX. A slight expansion of the existing 40

percent critical probability area was warranted, primarily into

eastern OK. A dry cold front diving southward and subsequent wind

shift could impact existing fires Thursday afternoon and evening

across the TX Panhandle and OK.



...Day 4/Friday...

Another embedded mid-level short wave and associated jet streak

pushes into the Southern Plains on Day 4/Friday resulting in dry and

breezy downslope flow across the High Plains of eastern NM and 

western TX. A 40 percent critical probability area was shifted

northward based on latest model guidance consensus. 



...Day 5/Saturday...

Dry, northerly flow in the wake of a pronounced dry cold front is

expected across southern TX on Day 5/Saturday, although cooler

post-frontal temperatures could somewhat mitigate a more significant

fire weather threat. Nonetheless, the dry and breezy north winds

along with dry fuels necessitated introduction of 40 percent

critical probabilities for much of south-central TX. 



...Day 6-8/Sunday-Tuesday...

Upper-level troughing becomes established across the eastern U.S.

while ridging builds west of the Continental Divide early next week.

Dry, post-frontal flow could bring fire weather concerns back into

the Southeast and FL by Day 7/Monday. However, some uncertainty

remains in preceding Day 6/Sunday precipitation amounts across this

region, which could mitigate fire weather concerns Monday. Critical

probabilities were not introduced owing to lower predictability and

potential mitigating impacts from rainfall.



..Williams.. 02/17/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$