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FNUS21 KWNS 171550

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0949 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021



Valid 171700Z - 181200Z



...NO CRITICAL AREAS...



No forecast changes are needed. Recent surface observations from the

lower CO river valley and southern AZ show relative humidity values

already in the low 20s and teens for a few locations. Further RH

reductions are expected as drier air moves in this afternoon.

Additionally, 25-35 mph low to mid-level flow is noted in morning

soundings and analyses, which supports the wind forecast outlined in

the previous discussion below. However, recent fuel guidance

continues to show near seasonal ERC values across the region, which

will limit the fire weather threat.



..Moore.. 02/17/2021



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021/



...Synopsis...

The broad trough across the Continental Divide will slowly shift

eastward today. A strengthening mid-level jet is expected to impact

portions of the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a pressure trough

will deepen within southern Arizona and New Mexico ahead of an

advancing cold airmass in the Plains. Typical dry conditions in the

lower Colorado River Valley and vicinity are probable during the

afternoon with RH falling to around 15% in some locations. The

strong jet aloft and surface pressure gradient will increase surface

winds to 15-25 mph. Sparse and marginally dry fuels preclude

highlights. High pressure in the Great Basin will drive offshore

flow in southern California, though fuel conditions will limit any

concern. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire weather concerns will be

minimal.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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