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FNUS21 KWNS 180717

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0116 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026



Valid 181200Z - 191200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH

PLAINS...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF IOWA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN

WISCONSIN...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...



...Synopsis...

Two mid-level shortwave troughs, embedded in a broader low-amplitude

upper troughing pattern, will traverse the central CONUS today. One

trough will overspread the Great Lakes as a surface low gradually

weakens along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border. The second mid-level

trough will eject into the southern Plains by afternoon, accompanied

by an 80-90 kt 500 mb jet streak. As a result, gradient flow

associated with the surface low over the Upper Mississippi Valley,

as well as dry downslope flow east of the southern Rockies, will

encourage appreciable wildfire spread potential over portions of the

Midwest and southern High Plains, respectively.



...Southern High Plains...

As downslope flow peaks in intensity by mid to late afternoon,

widespread 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds, with higher

gusts, will overlap with 10-15 percent RH (perhaps lower in some

locales). The best chance for these conditions will be over

northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and immediate

surrounding areas. Given very receptive fuels, high-end Critical

conditions, supporting dangerous/rapid wildfire-spread potential,

are expected. While Extremely Critical conditions are not expected

to be widespread like the yesterday, spotty Extremely Critical

conditions may be observed. Otherwise, 15-20 percent RH will overlap

with 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly winds for several hours

across much of the southern High Plains, warranting broad

Elevated/Critical highlights.



...Portions of the Midwest...

Before the surface low undergoes significant weakening, strong

gradient flow will persist during the afternoon, when boundary-layer

mixing will support a belt of overlapping 25 mph sustained westerly

surface winds and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. These

conditions will most likely be observed over central Iowa and

immediate surrounding areas. Such conditions are high-end Critical

for the Midwest, especially when considering that yesterday's

precipitation has not yielded meaningful accumulations, which have

also been lacking in the past few weeks. Rapid, dangerous wildfire

spread is possible wherever dry fuel beds exist, and a sparse

instance of Extremely Critical conditions cannot be ruled out.



..Squitieri.. 02/18/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$