####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 172113

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0312 PM CST WED FEB 17 2021



VALID TIME 181200Z - 241200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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####018002182####
FNUS28 KWNS 172113

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0312 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021



Valid 191200Z - 251200Z



The recent cold air outbreak and widespread snow/rain across the

U.S. has largely mitigated fuel receptiveness for the time being,

but a gradual warming trend is expected to begin by the end of the

work week. Fuels will likely remain unreceptive through the weekend

as an upper-level shortwave trough transverses the West and central

Rockies. Some fine fuel drying may occur by the middle of the

upcoming week when a second notable shortwave begins to move onshore

across the West. Between the weekend and mid-week systems, weak

winds and poor fuel readiness will limit the fire weather potential.



...D4/Saturday - Southwest...

Surface pressure falls are expected across portions of the Four

Corners and central High Plains through the day Saturday ahead of an

approaching upper-level trough. This will likely result in

strengthening winds from the lower CO river valley eastward into AZ

and NM. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonable

warming/drying signal over the weekend, suggesting that the

augmented winds may be coincident with reduced RH below 20%.

However, fuels remain the main mitigating factor, and scattered

rain/snow chances prior to D4/Saturday introduce uncertainty

regarding fuel status outside of the desert terrain.



...D5/Sunday - Southern California...

Another offshore wind event remains possible on D5/Sunday into early

D6/Monday as Saturday's upper-level trough exits the region to the

east and surface high pressure builds across the Pacific

Northwest/northern Great Basin. Northerly winds will likely aid in

downslope warming/drying along the coastal hills/mountains of

southern CA, which could result in areas of gusty winds with reduced

RH below 20%. Fuels are currently only marginally dry, so the fire

weather threat for Sunday will be conditional on fuel status and the

degree of drying from downslope effects.



..Moore.. 02/17/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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