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FNUS22 KWNS 111941

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024



Valid 121200Z - 131200Z



Removed the Critical area from Far West Texas and vicinity. Forecast

winds have trended down. This, combined with somewhat sparse fuels

in the region, warranted a downgrade.



Expanded the Elevated delineation into central and eastern Kansas.

Elevated to briefly critical conditions are expected to the south of

a weak surface low as it moves through northern Kansas. Critical

conditions are likely, but are only expected to last 1 or 2 hours.

In addition, there has been significant precipitation in this area

within the last week which has somewhat muted fuel receptiveness.

For these reasons, a Critical area is not needed, but an Elevated

area seems warranted.



..Bentley.. 03/11/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024/



...Synopsis...

A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central High

Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly

flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual

moisture return will begin across central Texas into central

Oklahoma.  Elevated to Critical fire weather is expected across

portions of the southern High Plains behind a surface dryline

located across west Texas/western Oklahoma.



Westerly downslope flow will prevail behind the dryline, with

Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions expected across

portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into

the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Critical conditions

are most likely across far southeastern New Mexico into western

Texas from Dell Valley into the Guadelupe Mountains and Trans-Pecos

region. In this region, deeply mixed profiles will support

relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained

winds at 20-25 mph amid ERCs nearing the 80th percentile. Outside of

this region, relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will

still be likely, but ensemble signal for sustained critical winds is

low. Locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible, with

potential for further expansion of the Critical risk with subsequent

updates. The Elevated risk was maintained with this outlook, with

minor expansions into the Texas Panhandle/far western Oklahoma and

further west into central New Mexico.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...