####018002446#### FNUS21 KWNS 181534 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of southeast Montana, northeast Wyoming, and the far western Dakotas. Although morning guidance has initialized slightly too warm/dry compared to observations, high-resolution runs have captured recent wind speed trends fairly well. These solutions, supported by ensemble probabilities, suggests a reasonably high likelihood of sustained winds near 20 mph across the northern Plains this afternoon as a surface low deepens across southern Canada. Although confidence in reaching critical RH values is low, afternoon RH minimums near 25% appear probable within the downslope flow regime, and given ERC values between the 75-90th percentile, should support at least regional fire weather concerns. Fire weather concerns may extend further east into the central and eastern Dakotas, but confidence in sustained, widespread elevated conditions is more limited due to greater spread in deterministic/ensemble solutions. Morning surface observations in the lee of the VA/NC Appalachians are sampling rather dry conditions with RH values in the 20-30% range. Localized fire weather concerns are probable in the immediate lee of the higher terrain as a frontal surge increases winds to 10-15 mph (gusting upwards of 20 mph) this afternoon. However, confidence in the spatial coverage of this threat is limited away from terrain features. ..Moore.. 03/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the US will be dominated by a deep eastern trough with northwesterly mid-level flow across the central US and a cutoff low over the southwest US. A secondary speed max embedded in the large-scale flow should lead to a surface cyclone near the US-Canada border, which may result in a few areas of Elevated conditions across southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming. However, these areas are expected to be localized, and fuels have received some moisture in the last week. Elsewhere across the central US, a large anticyclone is expected to keep winds weak. For these reasons, no risk areas are introduced on this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$