####018002475####
FNUS28 KWNS 102154

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0352 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026



Valid 121200Z - 181200Z



...Synopsis...

An amplifying upper ridge over the western U.S. will support

increasing temperatures and dry conditions through midweek. A

residual dry, post-frontal air mass will remain across the Southeast

through Day 4/Tuesday, but overall winds should remain light. An

upper-level low moving from Baja California into Southwest TX could

usher in deeper Pacific moisture and rainfall into portions of

Southwest TX and the Rio Grande Valley on Day 4/Tuesday. A potent

upper trough and accompanying surface cold front should move through

the central/eastern CONUS Day 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday, with some

potential to bring fire weather concerns back into the

central/southern Plains on Wednesday.



...Day 3-4/Monday-Tuesday - Central High Plains...

A subtle mid-level short wave within broad northwesterly flow should

pass over the Southern Rockies on Day 3/Monday supporting enhanced

downslope winds across northeastern CO, southeastern WY and the NE

Panhandle. An intensifying mid-level jet over the northern High

Plains will similarly promote breezy northwest winds across the

same, snow-free region on Day 4/Tuesday. However, limited RH

reductions could mitigate a larger fire weather concern.



...Day 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday - Central/Southern Plains

A strong, dry cold front moving through the central and southern

Plains should bring gusty north winds and conditional fire weather

concerns back into portions of TX on Day 5/Wednesday. Pacific

moisture and precipitation associated with an upper-level low

currently near Baja California could mitigate fire weather impacts 

across much of southwest TX and the Rio Grande Valley on Day

4/Tuesday, preceding the passage of the cold front on Day

5/Wednesday. 40% critical probabilities were introduced across

portions of north-central TX where minimal rainfall is expected amid

receptive/dormant fuels. Potential for an impactful dry return flow

event is possible on Day 6/Thursday across the Southern Plains, but

considerable timing/spatial uncertainty exists with the next surface

cold front entering the central U.S. Therefore, critical

probabilities were withheld for Thursday.



..Williams.. 01/10/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$

####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 102154

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0352 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026



VALID TIME 121200Z - 181200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



&&