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FNUS21 KWNS 251601

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1100 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026



Valid 251700Z - 261200Z



...Southwest and Southern High Plains...

The forecast remains on track with no changes to the existing

Elevated highlights. Modest westerly flow aloft and a complementary

evolving surface cyclone across northwest TX will promote dry and

breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest and southern High

Plains today. Relative humidity struggled to rise above 25%

overnight across much of southeastern NM and far west TX. A shallow

near surface inversion is quickly eroding across the region under

mostly sunny skies, allowing stronger boundary layer winds aloft to

mix down to the surface through peak heating this afternoon. West

winds of around 15 mph with brief, localized gusts of 35 mph

(particularly in the adjacent lee areas of mountain ranges), minimum

RH of 10-15% and receptive fuels will promote Elevated fire weather

conditions over south-central CO, far southeastern AZ, much of NM

and adjacent western TX through the afternoon.



..Williams.. 04/25/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026/



...Synopsis...

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across

portions of the Southwest and the southern High Plains.

Early-morning surface observations depict dewpoints in the low to

mid teens with poor overnight RH recovery (RH values also in the

teens) across much of eastern AZ, NM, and southern CO. No

appreciable moisture recovery is anticipated for today, which will

maintain very dry conditions with RH minimums in the single digits

to low teens across the region. 



Aloft, a low-amplitude upper wave will progress eastward across the

southern Rockies and into the southern Plains through peak heating.

This will promote slight deepening of a lee trough across KS/OK with

a resultant strengthening of westerly flow across the Southwest and

southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance depicts high

probability for sustained winds near 15 mph with occasional gusts

upwards of 25-30 mph possible. While localized/transient critical

conditions are possible (mainly across south-central NM and

southwest TX), most areas will likely see several hours of elevated

fire weather conditions this afternoon.



Fuels across the greater Southwest/southern High Plains region have

been slowly drying after preceding days of warm and windy

conditions. ERC values were recently estimated to be near the 85th

percentile, which is corroborated by small to moderate new fire

starts (10-100 acre fires) across NM and CO over the past 24 hours.

Consequently, fuels are sufficiently dry to support the Elevated

fire weather threat across the southern High Plains. Elevated

wind/RH conditions will likely expand as far east as northwest

TX/southwest OK, but fuel receptiveness generally declines with

eastward extent due to rainfall over the past week.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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