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FNUS21 KWNS 191620

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1119 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024



Valid 191700Z - 201200Z



An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Ohio

River Valley. Latest surface observations show winds already

increasing to 15-20 mph across a broad swath of the region. These

winds are expected to continue through peak heating this afternoon.

While recent guidance has initialized slightly drier than actual

observations, RH values are beginning to fall into the 35-40% range

with further reductions down to 25-30% expected by late afternoon.

Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions appear probable, but

fire weather concerns will primarily be focused across areas with

high concentrations of 1-hour fuels (primarily grasses and leaves,

which have sufficiently dried in recent days based on regional fuel

reports).



..Moore.. 03/19/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/



...Synopsis...

A split flow regime will develop over the U.S. throughout the day

with a belt of northwesterly flow in the Midwest and subtropical

westerlies at lower latitudes. No widespread areas of Elevated

fire-weather conditions are expected, although some localized gusty

and dry conditions may develop in portions of the Appalachians and

High Plains.



...Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC...

As a cold front continues to push southeastward through the East

Coast and FL Peninsula, locally stronger post-frontal surface winds

could yield Elevated fire-weather conditions in regions of locally

drier fuels. The lowest relative humidities are expected from the

Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC along the

eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Low confidence exists regarding

the overlap of strongest surface winds, drier conditions, and

receptive fuels, precluding any Elevated areas at this time.



...Southern High Plains...

The surface pattern across the Southern High Plains will be

influenced by steady, post-frontal high pressure along the Gulf

Coast and a developing, mid-level cutoff low over the Four Corners

region. This will yield gradual moisture return across the Southern

Plains, bounded to the west by drier southwesterly flow. Locally

windy (around 15+ mph) and dry (relative humidities around 20-25

percent) conditions may develop across portions of the TX/OK

Panhandles. Some precipitation has occurred across the region in the

last few days, but locally drier fuels may support pockets of

heightened fire-weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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