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FNUS22 KWNS 191857

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0156 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024



Valid 201200Z - 211200Z



The primary change to this forecast was to introduce an Elevated

risk area to portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Better alignment in

ensemble guidance has increased confidence in observing widespread

RH reductions into the 20-30% range in the lee of the Appalachians

with the downslope flow regime. Given the antecedent dry air mass,

RH reductions between 20-25% may actually be more common, as

suggested by drier deterministic solutions. Regardless, confidence

remains high in 15-20 mph winds with stronger winds (gusting to

30-40 mph) likely within the higher terrain. While larger fuels

remain somewhat moist, recent fuel reports from the region suggest

that 1 and some 10-hour fuels are receptive and should support a

fire threat. There remains some forecast uncertainty regarding the

northern and southern extent of the threat area, so further

refinements are possible. Other forecast concerns outlined in the

previous discussion (below) remain on track.



..Moore.. 03/19/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/



...Synopsis...

A split-flow regime will support separate regions of possible

fire-weather conditions on Wednesday. Elevated fire-weather

conditions are possible across portions of the southeastern NM and

West TX on Wednesday afternoon. Localized areas of dry, windy

conditions are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic, although lower

confidence in fuel levels currently precludes any Elevated areas.



...Southeastern NM and West TX...

An initial cutoff low is expected to shift eastward throughout the

day on Wednesday, yielding westerly flow aloft and a deepening

surface cyclone near the NM/TX border. This will yield prolonged

westerly surface flow up to around 15-20 mph and relative humidities

dropping to around 15 percent. Current guidance suggests fuels are

not at critical levels, but much of the region has not measured any

precipitation in the last two weeks. Predictability is slightly

lower due to the nature of the cutoff low and timing of the

eastward-ejecting trough. However, confidence is sufficient to

introduce an Elevated area representing the location of driest and

windiest conditions on Wednesday afternoon.



...Mid-Atlantic...

Gusty, post-frontal conditions will persist throughout the day on

Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic. The driest conditions are

currently expected in central VA, where relative humidities around

25-30 percent are possible amidst surface winds of 10-15 mph.

Pockets of drier fuels may support locally higher fire-weather

conditions, but relatively low confidence precludes an Elevated area

at this time.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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