####018002103#### FNUS22 KWNS 091916 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$