####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 202141

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0339 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2021



VALID TIME 221200Z - 281200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



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####018002145####
FNUS28 KWNS 202141

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0339 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021



Valid 221200Z - 281200Z



High pressure across the West Coast at the start of the extended

forecast period will give way to a progressive flow regime

punctuated by several shortwave troughs across the central CONUS by

midweek next week. Periodic dry and windy conditions in southern

California and across the Southwest/ Southern Plains may support

locally elevated fire weather conditions. However, fuels remain

largely unsupportive of fire potential limiting the threat. 



..Southern California...

Elevated to locally Critical conditions may occur across portions of

southern California through Day3/ Monday, with high pressure

building in the Great Basing forcing offshore flow along the

southwestern Coast. Fuels are likely to remain outside of critical

thresholds limiting the threat across much of the area. However,

offshore flow is forecast to return beyond Day5/Wednesday supporting

additional drying/ curing of short-hour fuels later in the period. 



...Southwest into the Southern Plains...

Periods of dry and windy conditions are expected beginning

Day4/Tuesday as westerly downlsope flow becomes enhanced by a

strengthening mid-level jet and shortwave trough over the Southwest.

While fuels remain questionable given higher than average fuel

moisture and cooler temperatures, little precipitation is expected

over the next week. The presence of increasingly dry fuels/surface

conditions and stronger boundary-layer winds may increase the

potential for elevated fire weather conditions by mid to late week.

The most likely area for sustained fire weather conditions will be

across portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas, where

short-hour fuels have remained the driest so far. Still,

considerable uncertainty exists on the spatial and temporal coverage

of any elevated fire weather potential through the next several

days.



..Lyons.. 02/20/2021



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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