####018002374#### FNUS28 KWNS 092145 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the western CONUS, encouraging surface low development across the southern High Plains as a cold front sweeps southward over the central U.S. through the middle of the week. The mid-level trough will then impinge on the Northeast while a second mid-level trough rapidly approaches the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend. As this occurs, a surface cyclone should develop across the Plains states and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated across portions of southern New Mexico into far western Texas with the passage of both mid-level troughs and accompanying surface lows for the middle of this week, as well as this weekend. For Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday), sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 25 mph should be common, with a considerable dip in RH expected by afternoon peak heating both days. Some questions remain on Day 3 (Tuesday) whether RH can dip below 15 percent on a widespread basis, with Critical probabilities remaining at 40 percent. However, 70 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day 4 (Wednesday) across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos region, where guidance consensus shows sustained surface winds potentially reaching 30 mph at times, coinciding with 10-15 percent RH. 10h fuels should continue to cure given an ongoing exceptional drought, no forecast rainfall, and multiple preceding days of warm, dry, and/or windy conditions, supporting wildfire-spread potential given favorable meteorological surface conditions. Thereafter, the next chance for appreciable wildfire spread will be around Day 7 (Saturday) across far western Texas. The lack of rainfall should continue to support the curing of fuels across this region as another mid-level trough and surface cyclone approach, supporting dry westerly downslope surface flow across the region. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for dry and windy conditions poised to overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ ####018000541#### FNUS38 KWNS 092145 PFWF38 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CST SUN FEB 09 2025 VALID TIME 111200Z - 171200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8 ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ... D4 31890646 32060573 32160420 32160360 32080294 31850251 31300209 30790189 30360195 30000211 29810236 29680262 29300283 28920315 28920355 29110391 29490439 29810463 29990473 30160481 30580509 30880540 31140578 31390617 31890646 &&