####018001970####
FNUS28 KWNS 202008

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0306 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024



Valid 221200Z - 281200Z



Critical fire weather potential remains highest across the southern

High Plains late this weekend into early next week. Long-range

ensemble guidance continues to show good agreement in the evolution

and progression of an upper trough from the West Coast into the Four

Corners by late D5/Sunday. Although ensemble cluster analyses

indicate that the exact timing of the upper trough remains somewhat

uncertain, increasing mid/upper-level flow through the day Sunday

will promote the deepening of a strong lee cyclone over the

southeast CO region. The resulting mass response should induce

strong southwesterly winds across eastern NM and western TX with

reasonably high confidence in winds between 15-25 mph. Concurrently,

downslope warming/drying should favor RH reductions into the low to

mid 20s, though discrepancies regarding exact RH minimums and

spatial coverage of sub-20% RH are noted in recent model solutions. 



The fire weather threat should primarily be focused behind a

sharpening dryline across western TX/eastern NM with widespread

elevated - to potentially critical - fire weather conditions likely.

Limited rainfall through the remainder of the week should promote a

gradual drying of fine fuels by Sunday afternoon. Although

confidence in the overall synoptic regime remains high, uncertainty

regarding the RH forecast and fuel status precludes higher risk

probabilities. Beyond D5/Sunday, fire weather concerns may persist

into D6/Monday and could re-emerge by the middle of the work week as

a second, lower-amplitude wave passes over the region. However,

confidence in this potential is too low to introduce additional risk

areas.



..Moore.. 03/20/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$

####018000271####
FNUS38 KWNS 202008

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0306 PM CDT WED MAR 20 2024



VALID TIME 221200Z - 281200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



&&