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FNUS22 KWNS 251936

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0235 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026



Valid 261200Z - 271200Z



...Great Basin...

Stronger southwest winds will evolve across the Desert Southwest

into the Great Basin as an upper-level trough and associated

increasing southwesterly flow aloft shifts southward from the

Pacific Northwest. A deeply mixed and dry boundary layer ahead of an

advancing cold front will support RH reductions of 15-20% across

much of eastern NV and western UT, into northwest AZ Tuesday

afternoon. Southwest winds of 20-30 mph and RH as low as 15% will

promote an elevated to locally critical fire weather threat amid

cured/drying fine fuels, primarily in lower elevation/mid-slope

areas. Only minor adjustments were made to the existing Elevated

Highlights based on latest forecast guidance.



...Northeastern Montana and Extreme Western North Dakota...

Pronounced lee surface trough development is expected across central

MT as the upper-level trough in the Pacific Northwest progresses

southeastward towards the Great Basin. As a result, southeasterly

winds will accelerate to 15-20 mph across much of the Northern

Plains Tuesday, while limited low-level moisture return will support

RH reductions of 15-20% during peak afternoon heating across much of

eastern MT. Overall fire weather threat will be confined to

northeastern MT and far western ND where delayed green up and

existing dry fuels align with these dry and breezy conditions. In

addition, isolated high-based thunderstorms with minimal rainfall

are possible across far northeastern MT into ND along a weak frontal

boundary.



..Williams.. 05/25/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0226 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026/



...Synopsis...

A robust upper-level trough will shift southward into the Great

Basin on D2/Tuesday as a blocking ridge begins to establish over the

central CONUS. Weak upper troughing will also persist across the

southern High/Great Plains. Meanwhile, a surface low will develop

across the northern High Plains as a cold front progresses eastward

across the Great Basin. Additional chances for wetting

rainfall/thunderstorms are expected across the southern High Plains

in association with a passing shortwave trough and across much of

the Southeast.



...Northeastern Montana...

Increasing southeasterly flow ahead of an evolving lee

trough/strengthening surface low is expected across much of the

northern High Plains on D2/Tuesday, with sustained surface winds of

around 15-25 mph and occasional wind gusts up to 30 mph expected.

Greater low-level moisture is forecast to remain displaced to the

east across the Dakotas, with forecast guidance/soundings depicting

deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles and RH reductions to near

15% across much of eastern/northeastern Montana. With dry fuels

across much of northeastern Montana, these conditions are expected

to support elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns

Tuesday afternoon. Consideration was given to a westward expansion

of elevated highlights; however, uncertainty regarding the

coverage/development of high-based convection in association with a

northward shifting mid-level shortwave trough also increases with

westward extent. Trends will be monitored for future outlook cycles.



...Great Basin...

As the aforementioned upper-level trough shifts southward into the

Great Basin on Tuesday, a deepening surface low will promote a

strengthening surface pressure gradient ahead of the eastward

progressing cold front. Sustained southwesterly surface winds of

20-30 mph are expected amid this strengthening gradient, with

well-mixed boundary layer profiles supporting RH reductions to

15-20% (locally lower). Accelerating mid-level flow may also support

occasional wind gusts to 30-35 mph (perhaps higher in exposed,

elevated terrain areas). With near critically dry fuels across the

region, these conditions are expected to support a broad area of

elevated fire weather concerns, with locally critical conditions

possible in areas of drier fine fuels.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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