####018000451####
FNUS38 KWNS 212045

PFWF38



DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0343 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2024



VALID TIME 231200Z - 291200Z



FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8



... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ...



D4     32420415 33310326 34160257 34890207 35410176 35600118

       35520063 35260037 34740041 34210055 33470089 31860242

       31650292 31540347 31680412 32040436 32420415

&&

####018002914####
FNUS28 KWNS 212045

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024



Valid 231200Z - 291200Z



Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon

across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later

in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a

combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or

unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire

weather concerns. 



...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains...

Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather

potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the

Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a

strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region

Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the

central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong

southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a

sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat

will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak

heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach

into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. 



Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous

critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble

solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums

near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the

50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western

TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions

(by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive

loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for

20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire

weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from

far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance

currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge

and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will

see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of

40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as

confidence in finer-scale details improves. 



Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather

concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river

valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern

is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a

second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in

surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk

probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system.



..Moore.. 03/21/2024



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$