####018000271#### FNUS38 KWNS 112126 PFWF38 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0324 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2025 VALID TIME 131200Z - 191200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8 ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ... && ####018001999#### FNUS28 KWNS 112126 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... By the end of Day 3/Thursday, a longwave trough is expected to be over the northeastern CONUS while a shortwave trough begins to move onshore near southern CA. This feature will traverse the Southwest and Southern Plains this weekend. Increasing mid-level flow near the base of this trough, and the surface pressure gradient on the western periphery of an associated cyclone, should support breezy west-northwesterly surface winds across much of the Trans-Pecos and the Big Bend of TX Day 5/Saturday. Confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities within this area, where fuels will likely remain receptive to fire starts. However, some initial cold air advection accompanying a Pacific front may keep RH above critical thresholds and an increase in probabilities has not been considered at this time. A modified Arctic air mass encompassing most of the CONUS east of the Rockies and generally weaker surface winds will limit the overall fire weather threat into Day 6/Sunday. Increasing orthogonal mid-level flow across the southern Rockies D7/Monday, however, will induce lee pressure falls. A return to relatively dry southerly surface winds across the Southern Plains, and increasing westerly downslope over eastern NM and the Trans-Pecos are anticipated by this time. Confidence isn't high enough to warrant low probabilities for these areas yet given the timing and depth of another approaching Pacific shortwave trough, though this area will be monitored in subsequent forecasts. A similar scenario and low confidence may apply to Day 8/Tuesday across far southern NM and the western Trans-Pecos ahead of another cold front. ..Barnes.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$