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FNUS21 KWNS 061653

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1052 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024



Valid 061700Z - 071200Z



No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See

previous discussion below for more information.



..Thornton.. 12/06/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/



...Synopsis...

Localized elevated fire weather conditions are expected for portions

of the southern CA coast through the day and into the overnight

hours. 06 UTC surface observations show a seasonally strong surface

high over the northern Great Basin (MSLP values between the 75th to

90th percentile for early December). This feature, combined with a

weak trough axis along the CA coast, has maintained a persistent

DAG-LAX pressure gradient between -5 to -8 mb over the past 24

hours. Offshore winds are forecast to increase through 18 UTC as the

pressure gradient gradually strengthens before slowly abating

through the remainder of the forecast period. A shallow marine layer

evident in the 00 UTC VBG sounding and coastal surface obs is

expected to mix out as winds strengthen, but the warmest/driest

conditions will likely reside within the thermal layer above 1700 ft

(also evident in the VBG sounding and surface obs). Latest high-res

guidance suggests the offshore pressure gradient will approach

critical thresholds by around 16-18 UTC and may support gusts within

the higher terrain between 20-30 mph as RH values fall into the

teens. As such, pockets of elevated to critical fire weather

conditions are possible through much of the southern CA coastal

terrain - though appear most persistent/widespread between the San

Gabriel and San Rafael Mountains where terrain influences will

locally augment the gradient winds. Elevated fire weather conditions

should become increasingly isolated through late afternoon, but may

persist for some locations through early Saturday morning.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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