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FNUS21 KWNS 291632

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1131 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026



Valid 291700Z - 301200Z



...Southwest...

Dry and breezy conditions including west-southwest winds of 15 mph

(approaching 20 mph locally) and RH ranging from 5-15%, are still

expected across eastern AZ into much of western NM through this

afternoon. A slight eastward expansion of Elevated Highlights was

made into far west TX to include the Davis Mountains. Overnight

cloud cover contributed to poor overnight recoveries across the

area. Stronger west-southwest flow aloft and lee surface troughing

across the southern High Plains will aid in stalling the

southwestward advancement of a cold front across eastern NM and much

of TX. This will allow dry and breezy conditions to continue across

the area through the afternoon.



...Southern Georgia and Northern Florida...

A weak surface trough stretches southwestward from a low over the

Northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic and into the Coastal Plains

region of southern GA. Clearing skies will aid in boundary layer

mixing through the afternoon, manifesting in west wind of around 10

mph. RH reductions of 25-35% are expected during peak heating,

supporting elevated fire weather conditions amid receptive and

drought stressed fuels. Rainfall from decaying convection overnight

into this morning has moderated fuels across portions of southern

GA, reducing overall fire weather threat. Elevated highlights have

been contracted on the northern and western peripheries to account

for a temporary lull in fire danger.



..Williams.. 04/29/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026/



...Synopsis...

A mid/upper level shortwave trough will traverse the Midwest into

the Ohio Valley as an attendant surface low approaches the

Mid-Atlantic. A trailing cold front will progress east of the

Appalachians extending into the Southeast by this afternoon. Dry

westerly flow south of the advancing cold front is expected to

increase fire weather concerns for portions of southern GA and

northern FL where fuels remain dry. Enhanced mid-level westerly flow

ahead of an approaching Pacific trough will bolster a continued

downslope regime across the Southwest. With preceding days of

fire-effective weather conditions and receptive fuels, fire weather

concerns will persist over central NM to far eastern AZ this

afternoon.



...Southwest...

Upper-level cloud cover is currently increasing across much of the

Southwest and southern Plains early this morning owing to a

subtropical jet advecting moisture aloft. This will likely inhibit

RH recoveries west of the NM central mountain chain, preconditioning

an already dry fuel environment. A 50-60 kt mid-level jet at the

base of an embedded, low-amplitude shortwave within broader

west-southwest flow will evolve across the Southwest and southern

Plains today, promoting continued dry and breezy conditions.

Westerly winds of 15-20 mph and RH of less than 15 percent amid dry

fuels will support an Elevated fire weather threat for portions of

eastern AZ into central NM/West TX and the San Luis Valley. Locally

critical fire weather conditions may emerge mainly in the leeward

slopes of the more prominent mountain ranges in southern NM with

sustained winds of 20-25 mph amid 10 percent RH.



...Southern Georgia and Northern Florida...

Beneath the upper level trough, a deepening surface low over the

Mid-Atlantic will enhance southwest to westerly surface winds across

much of the Southeast as minimal Gulf moisture influence will

overlap a dry and drought stressed landscape. West winds of around

10 mph and RH of 25-35 percent (locally less than 25 percent) are

expected to promote an Elevated fire weather threat across portions

of southern GA into northern FL this afternoon. Early morning

thunderstorms are currently moving across central AL into far

western GA, but are expected to diminish as they approach the

Elevated risk area. However, if precipitation persists farther

southeast than anticipated, fire weather highlights will be adjusted

in the 17z outlook.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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