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FNUS21 KWNS 151615

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1014 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026



Valid 151700Z - 161200Z



The forecast remains unchanged. The lowest RH is expected to remain

near the terrain/foothills in Colorado where downslope flow will be

greatest. However, there may be a small zone in northeast Colorado

along the fringe of lower RH that will observe a couple hours of

critical conditions this afternoon. For additional details, see the

previous discussion below.



..Wendt.. 01/15/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0218 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026/



...Synopsis...

A strong upper trough will continue to deepen over the eastern US as

a second trough begins to move out of southern Canada. A strong jet

streak and reinforcing cold front will approach from the north

bolstering strong surface winds. With dry conditions already in

place, the strong winds will likely support increasing fire-weather

potential Thursday.



...Central and southern High Plains...

As the strong trough moves southeast over the US, lee troughing will

promote stronger westerly downslope surface flow over parts of the

central High Plains. With a dry air mass in place behind the prior

cold font afternoon RH values of 15-25% are expected across parts of

southeastern WY into northern CO and western KS/NE. Surface winds of

25-40 mph overlapped with the low humidity will likely favor

sustained elevated fire-weather conditions for several hours given

very dry fine fuels.



A couple of hours of near-critical fire-weather concerns are also

possible across the region through the afternoon. The strongest

gusts (30-40 mph) will likely not overlap with the lowest humidity,

and some light precipitation has tempered the driest fuels. This

lower confidence precludes the inclusion of a critical area for now.

However, with strong gusts in proximity to RH in the 20-30% range

and fuels abnormally dry, brief critical fire-weather conditions are

possible.



A west/northwesterly flow regime is expected over parts of the TX

Panhandle and eastern NM with similar dry/breezy conditions. Lee

troughing will promote afternoon winds of 15-20 mph amid RH below

20%. With dry fuels in place, and recent fire activity, several

hours of enhanced fire-weather conditions appear probable over parts

of the southern Plains this afternoon.



..Southeast...

Very dry surface conditions are expected over the Southeast in the

wake of the strong frontal passage. Northwest winds of 10-20 mph are

likely over portions of southern GA into the carolinas and northern

FL. Afternoon RH values will likely be below 30%, before much cooler

surface temperatures and light precipitation arrive behind the

front. This should mitigate fire-weather concerns to some degree,

though localized elevated conditions are possible given the dry

state of areas fuels and the overlap with breezy offshore winds.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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