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FNUS22 KWNS 231829

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0128 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024



Valid 241200Z - 251200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND

CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...



Critical fire weather conditions are still on track to develop

tomorrow/Sunday on much of the southern High Plains and into

portions of the central High Plains. The area of greatest concern is

the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles/vicinity due to the above normal

fuel loading as noted by the recently updated Fuels and Fire

Behavior Advisory and high-end critical fire weather conditions.

While fuel loading and dryness are not as critical in far southwest

Texas, including the Big Bend region, the critical was extended to

account for 3-6 hours of critical winds/RH tomorrow/Sunday. 



Sustained southwest winds of 20-40 mph gusting to 40-65 mph are

expected amid minimum RH of 12-25%, with critical conditions likely

starting by midday and continuing into the evening, with locally

extremely critical conditions possible as well. These winds will

overlap the low-level thermal ridge as it strengthens and shifts

eastward from the New Mexico-Texas border to near the Texas-Oklahoma

border by the evening. Storms initiating on the dryline are likely

to move east-northeast, with dry/windy conditions quickly following

that could prove to be a conducive environment for lightning

ignitions in the far eastern Texas Panhandle and far western

Oklahoma. 



While the pattern and forecast weather and fuels conditions have

hallmarks of a Southern Great Plains Wildfire Outbreak, there are

some mitigating conditions. Mid/high-level clouds are likely to

spread over parts of the outlook area as high clouds are likely to

exit the area in the morning with mid-level clouds, including

possible isolated high based showers, moving over in the

afternoon/evening. There is also uncertainty regarding the eastward

and northward extents of the elevated/critical areas due to the

aforementioned clouds/showers and approaching cold front. RH values

are also likely to remain mostly above 15-20% in the outlook area,

but the expected winds, fuels, and recent fire behavior are likely

to sufficiently compensate. A cold front will move southeast and

impact southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas by late evening and

move into the Texas Panhandle overnight. Winds will turn to the

northwest, temperatures will drop into the 30-40s, and RH will

increase to 60-80+% behind the front. Overnight RH recovery will

likely be 30-60% ahead of the cold front and behind the dryline on

the southern High Plains.



..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/



...Synopsis...

A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains

tomorrow/Sunday, supporting the rapid deepening of a surface cyclone

over the central High Plains. Strong westerly surface winds will

become prevalent behind the dryline over the central and southern

High Plains during the afternoon, with potentially dangerous fire

weather conditions becoming likely. By afternoon peak heating, 30+

mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts)

will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for several hours across

portions of southwestern Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles,

west-central Texas, and far southeastern New Mexico. While fuel

receptiveness will not be extremely robust, the loading of dormant

fuels remnant from the 2023 season will compensate to support

high-end Critical wildfire-spread potential, given the very windy

and dry meteorological surface conditions.



Dry, occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across

portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Sunday afternoon.

While guidance consensus does not strongly favor overlapping

Elevated surface winds/RH across eastern Missouri into Indiana, this

region has experienced a lack of appreciable rainfall in the past

week and remains under drought conditions. As such, instances of

localized wildfire spread may occur Sunday afternoon.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$