####018000271#### FNUS38 KWNS 232203 PFWF38 DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2024 VALID TIME 251200Z - 311200Z FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 3-8 ... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ... && ####018003293#### FNUS28 KWNS 232203 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A highly amplified pattern will continue over the CONUS with a deep upper-level trough slowly moving east across the central and eastern US through mid-next week. Another upper-level trough is forecast to deepen over the western CONUS next weekend with zonal upper-level flow slowly amplifying over the Rockies and Plains late next week into next weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely at times late next week and next weekend, but there remains uncertainty regarding the timing of the upper-level trough moving into and deepening over the West Coast and how amplified mid-level short-wave ridging becomes over the Rockies and Plains. ...D3/Monday: southwest Texas/vicinity... While the surface pressure gradient will weaken over southwest Texas, strong winds aloft mixing to the surface and an approaching cold front will likely result in sustained winds of 15-20 mph amid minimum RH of 10-25%. The northward and eastward extents of the 40% area have uncertainty due to the approaching cold front and weakening dryline to the east. Additionally, thunderstorms are possible in eastern portions of the outlook area D2/Sunday night possibly into D3/Monday morning, and isolated showers are also possible within outlook area. ...D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday: southeast New Mexico/southwest Texas... Post-frontal dry and breezy conditions are likely in portions of southern/southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas D4/Tuesday - D5/Wednesday. As the upper-level troughs exits the area, gusty northwest flow aloft on D5/Wednesday is likely to mix to the surface, with lingering breezy westerly winds on D4/Tuesday. However, locally elevated conditions are most likely on these days based on current forecast fire weather and fuels guidance. ...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... Current ensemble guidance indicates that a multi-day episode of elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely late next week and weekend. Subsequent 40% areas for critical fire weather conditions have been included for D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday. However, the timing, location, and magnitude remain uncertain after ensemble guidance has trended towards less westerly, zonal flow aloft across the southern Rockies and southern High Plains and more towards shortwave ridging aloft. A mid-level shortwave trough remains forecast to move over the central/southern Plains late next week, but recent guidance shows a weaker trough and slightly farther north. While forecast uncertainty remains regarding the exact location and timing of critical fire weather from central/southern New Mexico to the southern Plains late next week and weekend, there is enough confidence to include 40% probability areas for critical conditions. Subsequent outlooks will likely modify these 40% areas, and there is the possibility of removing them from at least one day if current forecast trends accelerate. ..Nauslar.. 03/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$