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FNUS21 KWNS 161706

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1106 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026



Valid 161700Z - 171200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS

PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...



...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into Western Oklahoma...

Strong northwesterly surface winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph

are expected across portions of the southern Plains through this

afternoon. A dry, post frontal air mass will support relative

humidity as low as 15% across western OK and adjacent portions of

the TX/OK Panhandles. The alignment of dry and windy conditions

along with receptive fuels will promote critical fire weather

conditions through this afternoon. Critical highlights were slightly

extended to the south and southwest into portions of far

northwestern TX given latest short term model guidance and current

surface observations.



...Northeastern Colorado into Northwestern Kansas...

Elevated highlights were extended northwestward into much of eastern

CO and the CO Front Range. Cloud cover had remained minimal through

the mid-morning hours. Current observed wind speeds of 30-40 mph

with gusts 50-60 mph will persist through the afternoon. These winds

will combine with very dry air (dew points in the single digits and

minimum relative humidity as low as 15%) to promote an enhanced fire

weather threat across the area despite temperatures only rising into

the 30s and 40s, with receptive fuels in place.



...Southeast...

A very dry air mass is in place across the Southeast with dew points

currently in the single digits. Surface low pressure across the

Great Lakes will promote light south-southwesterly winds across the

region, although speeds are likely to remain limited to 10 mph or

less. Colder temperatures with highs in the 40s will be a mitigating

factor in a larger fire weather threat across the region today, but

localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible where winds

approach 15 mph and RH falls to around 20% this afternoon.



..Williams.. 01/16/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026/



...Synopsis...

A strong mid-level jet maximum will progress southward along the

Rockies/western edge of broad-scale eastern-CONUS troughing

throughout the day. As a surface low pressure system colocated with

the trough center moves eastward out of Wisconsin, a strong cold

front will continue to push eastward and southward across much of

the Great Plains and into the Midwest. Low relative humidity,

receptive fuels, and strong post-frontal surface winds will support

Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of the Texas and

Oklahoma panhandles, into western Oklahoma.



...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into Western Oklahoma...

Post-frontal conditions in the vicinity of the Texas and Oklahoma

panhandles into western Oklahoma will result in surface wind speeds

of 20-25 MPH, gusting as high as 35-40 MPH. Relative humidity will

broadly range from 15-30%, with the higher values corresponding with

cooler post-frontal temperatures near the border with Kansas. With

seasonal ERCs largely above the 90th percentile, widespread Elevated

and a smaller area of Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast

for this afternoon. A slight westward expansion of the Critical

highlights is introduced in this forecast to reflect greater

confidence in the location of the strongest surface winds per recent

HREF guidance. Though surface temperatures in far southeastern

Colorado into southwestern Kansas will be cooler (near 40F), surface

winds will be much stronger, warranting at least Elevated

highlights.



...Northeastern Colorado into Northwestern Kansas...

Seasonal ERCs are well above the 90th percentile across the region,

with sustained surface winds of 40+ MPH (gusting 50-60 MPH)

expected. However, surface temperatures are expected to remain

cooler (mid 30s F) given a lack of downslope component to the winds.

Forecast middle and upper-level cloud cover will further suppress

surface warming during the afternoon. Though fire-weather concerns

may develop, several limiting factors should limit the spatial and

temporal extent of any potential Elevated highlights.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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